What to make of the Presidential polls
An ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama running away with an 11 point lead. CNN/Opinion Research says his lead is 5. AP/Gfk has Obama up by only 1, a virtual tie.
The reason is pollsters don’t just ask questions and report the results. They weight the results based on how the electorate is made up. If they poll 1000 republicans and 500 democrats, by chance, they can’t just report the results. They’re not representative, because their aren’t twice as many republicans as democrats. The problem that arises is figuring out the exact makeup of the electorate.
Obviously, the pollsters disagree on the makeup of the electorate. 11 point difference between one poll and another show that someone is severely inaccurate. You also have to pay attention to what kind of poll it was. There are registered voter polls and likely voter polls. Big difference. So how do you know who is telling the truth?
The poll that most accurately reported the results in 2004, Investor’s Business Daily, has Obama leading McCain 44.8% to 43.7%. 1.1% lead, which is within the margin of error, and obviously the 11% undecided left over certainly will have an effect. Unfortunately, their guess at the makeup of the electorate could be wrong too, as the candidacy of Obama may have changed it a point or two. Basically, the only poll you might be able to believe is the election results on November 5. Even then, issues with ACORN etc. will certainly make for a long holiday season.
Gore won the popular vote in 2000, so a national poll is a bit irrelevant anyway. I would pay attention to swing state polls. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Virgina, North Carolina. McCain appears he will get Ohio and Florida as Bush did, but will probably lose North Carolina. McCain needs to hold onto a bunch more states, OR win Pennsylvania. If McCain wins PA, Obama is in big trouble. Watch Pennsylvania, the state Obama and Murtha have stated the residents “cling to their guns and religion.”